Pre-Colonial Kingdoms and the Coup-Civil War Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa

Rulers of weakly institutionalized states constantly fear coup attempts. The risk of coups may lead rulers to exclude certain ethnic groups from power—despite creating incentives for excluded groups to rebel against the government. But under what conditions do leaders perceive strong threats? Focusing on post-independence SubSaharan Africa, this paper argues that leaders of countries containing one or multiple large pre-colonial kingdoms (PCKs) perceived greater hazards from members of other ethnic groups. A formal model examines conditions under which (1) a coup-civil war nexus will arise and (2) a strategic ruler will pursue ethnic exclusion. Empirically, PCK groups undermined possibilities for developing strong inter-ethnic institutional ties, which undermined commitment ability after independence. Statistical evidence at the country and ethnic group level, alongside case evidence, shows PCKs are an important explanation for ethnic exclusion, coups, and civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Cold War era. ∗Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, [email protected]